Case in point: the Taiwan – China dilemma. The relationship between the two countries is so ambiguous at the moment, and politicians and citizens alike are quite content to leave it that way, putting it off ‘til tomorrow.

Taiwan, a small island 250 miles long located off the east coast of China, is home to about 23 million people and previously an economic world power. It has a functioning democracy and a constitution, but currently, the island is split over its political status – some people claim it is an independent country separated from China, others are seeking reunification. China, a rising country that the UN and other nations recognize, regards Taiwan as a renegade province that needs to be put back in its place, with force if necessary. There are, at the moment, about five hundred missiles aimed at the island and in 1996, China launched “test” missiles into the Taiwan Strait. Military forces practice drills along the coast in an intimidation effort echoing that of North Korea’s.

As the whole issue moves (slowly) towards the brink of some historical moment, here’s background as to how this current delicate situation came to be. In 1949, the Communist Party seized power in China and Chairman Mao Zedong took power. The previous government, the Kuomintang (Chinese Nationalist Party), fled to Taipei, Taiwan led by President Chiang Kai-shek. From there, they originally planned to retake political power in the mainland and called Taiwan the Republic of China. In 1979, the United States signed the Taiwan Relations Act, where the US pledged to maintain ties with Taiwan and supply the island with defensive weaponry such as submarines, warships, and anti-submarine aircraft.

Taiwan Brief

Capital: Taipei
Population: 22,894,384 (July 2005 est.)
Ethnic mix: Taiwanese (including Hakka) 84%, mainland Chinese 14%, aborigine 2%
Languages: Mandarin Chinese (official), Taiwanese (Min), Hakka dialects
SOURCE: CIA Factbook

Then in the 1980’s, a call for independence and democracy rose. In 1988, the first Taiwanese president was elected; President Len Teng-hui gradually begins to remove KMT officials from power and the media becomes more liberal and begins to cover governmental and KMT corruption. There is a gradual shift in the culture as Taiwan gains country pride; schools begin to teach Taiwanese history, restaurants start to specialize in local dishes, and even musical artists release songs in the Taiwanese dialect. One such singer, Tseng Kuan-jung (aka Dog G), even raps about Taiwanese pride. In an annual poll conducted by Taipei’s Chengchi University, 42% of residents consider themselves “Taiwanese”, over the 10% who consider themselves “Chinese”.

China does not sit idle while this goes on. They threaten to use an offensive attack strategy, claiming that Taiwanese independence is justification for war. China has also blocked Taiwan from joining major international organizations, claiming it does not have the required statehood for membership. During the SARS outbreak, China did not allow World Health Organization officials to enter the island. In the past, Taiwan has offered about thirty Olive Branch petitions, but China prevents government-to-government contact on the basis that Taiwan’s is illegitimate. Just recently, China passed the Anti-Secession law, restating that Beijing has the legal right to use “non-peaceful means” if independence is formally declared.

In 2000, Chen Shui-ban of the Democratic Progressive Party ran for office and won the presidency, breaking the 50-year reign of the Kuomintang. He is the first Taiwanese-born president whose platform openly backed independence and stood up to China. He showed a strong faith in his country in 2001, saying, “Taiwanese people have been very mature and very rational. Taiwan is a genuinely democratic country. Taiwan is not the Philippines. Taiwan is not Indonesia. Taiwan is Taiwan.” In his successful run for reelection in 2004, he modified his campaign to say that he will not formally declare independence as long as China does not attack. Though he does believe the country to be self-determining and was quoted having said that even if he is removed from office, the Taiwanese people would still split from China. In a November 2004 interview with TIME magazine, President Chen said: “If Taiwan were not an independent country, it would not hold direct presidential elections. Taiwan is an independent sovereign country and a country in which freedom, democracy, human rights and peace are upheld and respected.” Currently, President Chen Shui-ban has proposed a referendum for 2006 to change the 59-year-old constitution made by the KMT to one that is more suitable to the sovereign state movement of Taiwan.

China Brief

Capital: Beijing
Population: 1,306,313,812 (July 2005 est.)
Ethnic mix: Han Chinese 91.9%, Zhuang, Uygur, Hui, Yi, Tibetan, Miao, Manchu, Mongol, Buyi, Korean, and other nationalities 8.1%
Languages: Standard Chinese or Mandarin (Putonghua, based on the Beijing dialect), Yue (Cantonese), Wu (Shanghaiese), Minbei (Fuzhou), more …
SOURCE: CIA Factbook

The deal that China offers is known as the “one country, two systems” it has with Hong Kong. But seeing that Hong Kong experienced the loss of many rights as a country and as a democracy, the current Taiwan government opposes the plan. Under the plan, Taiwan would become a province with a local government and be subjected to China’s government and laws. A poll by the Mainland Affair’s Council of Taiwan revealed that only 7% of respondents approved of the plan while 71% did not. In March 2004, Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated that he would be willing to talk with Taiwan under the condition that they accept the “one China” policy. But he maintains that China “stand[s] firmly opposed to any form of separatist activities aimed at Taiwan independence and will never allow anyone to split Taiwan from China by any means.”

In April of 2005, previous presidential candidate of the KMT, Lein Chan, met with Communist leader President Hu Jintao in a “Journey of Peace”. It was the first peaceful meeting between the two parties to join forces and agree on eventual reunification since 1949. The last meeting in 1992 resulted in the agreement to disagree over the definition of a “one China”. The KMT, originally the enemy of the Communist regime, now fights for eventual reunification while the current ruling power, the DPP wants independence. After the meeting, hundreds of pro-independence supporters accused Lein of betraying Taiwan; 64% of a Taiwan’s Focus Survey Research survey said that Lein had no right to represent the country in the visit.

Geographically, Taiwan is a strategic and valuable island for many countries, including Japan and the US. President George W. Bush has pledged to aid Taiwan should the event come to pass, though he maintains that it is necessary the issue be decided peacefully. The United States is the major, open ally of Taiwan, and yet the President recognizes China as a growing world power. It promotes democracy in one hand in Iraq, and yet hesitates to aid a democratic nation against a Communist one. After a forty-minute meeting with Premier Wen talk last March, President Bush declared that he opposes any move by DPP President Chen that changes the current situation. His equivocal stand does not throw the stalemate in either direction.

Looking at the situation from a less political aspect, Taiwan and China are closely linked. Over one million Taiwanese are living or working in the mainland and even more companies are predicted to join them in the coming years. The younger generation of is already focusing on the move; MBA candidate Fan Po-yu has his future set on China: “It’s where the opportunities are.” Taiwanese economy is heavily dependent on China’s, with about 100 billion dollars invested. On China’s behalf, closer business ties with the island make an all-out offensive war less likely. Back in 2001, President Chen said that for the sake of security, it would be necessary to purchase modern defensive weapons, saying it was “not a choice – we are forced to do so… we will not initiate war. We do not seek conflict. But if necessary, we will not flinch from protecting ourselves.” China protests that an accumulation of arms could be interpreted as an act of aggression. The people of Taiwan themselves are split – strong revolutionaries want freedom and revenge from the past (e.g. Cultural Revolution). Some want to follow the idea of independence, but realize it might be totally impractical. Others have already looked toward the future, sending children abroad and making outside investments. And others simply want peace, sick of the ambivalence.

The debate of sovereign state versus exiled government is drawing to a close. “Taiwan”, or officially the “Republic of China”, slowly edges toward an unknown future while the whole world watches. Now the issue is independence, echoing a similar situation back in 1776, though with graver, international repercussions.

Tif is a Halfway Staff Writer

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